If you had a new chapter to add to your 2018 book, Africa in Transformation , to give it the necessary update in a turbulent world, what would you write?
Demographics will dominate development. During the Covid-19 pandemic, we saw the enormous importance of Africas population and its youth. Thats why the continent suffered less than others from a health point of view. We have also seen recently that, in a world in transition, the need for labour and certain types of immigration is difficult for some countries to accept for cultural and political reasons. Lack of access to liquidity is holding back economic development. All of these crises are having social consequences in Africa, as can be seen from the protests of all kinds.
Despite the complexity of the situation, is there any hope that Africa will be able to find the financing it needs to continue developing?
The situation is somewhat paradoxical. We are experiencing financial difficulties as a result of the global inflationary situation. And yet the IMF predicts that by 2024 half of all growth will be in Africa. We are in the process of verifying certain types of development, evaluating the economic and industrial transformation on the one hand, and on the other, the growth resulting from the demographic explosion.
How can we make the transition, in the structure of African economies, so that they are no longer dependent on development aid, and so that they can have access to financing at much more realistic interest rates?
And we must not just think in terms of growth. Some countries, like Niger, have high growth rates and high levels of poverty. So we must not delude ourselves into believing that the transition will bring about the necessary transformation of the continent. When I say that Africa is the future of the world, I mean it from a demographic point of view. Because the world will not be able to develop without this essential African contribution in terms of its youth. Of course, the way in which this is done can be problematic.
What should policymakers prioritise?
In reality, the number one priority for the continent is the energy transition. From there, we have dimensions that are linked to the climate, industrial transformation and technological absorption by Africans. Africa has considerable potential in this area. The world is going to have to make this transition as a matter of urgency, if it confirms the move away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energies. Africas largest renewable energy production capacity in any field is green hydrogen.
How are countries going to tackle an issue that requires a strong commitment and a great deal of political will?
By taking the example of the worlds largest economy, the United States. Just look at the importance of these energies in their investment portfolio in Africa! In the same vein, if we look at what is happening in relation to China, there has been a considerable drop in investment in many areas, but not in energy. In most of the mineral exploitations in Africa, the Chinese presence is very much linked to the energy transition through minerals, which are essential for producing batteries or which are essential for other transformations in the industrial field.
Take a country like Germany, which is currently in crisis because it was dependent on Russian gas. For its economic model, it is now turning to Africa because thats where it thinks it can find an alternative solution.
The most interesting aspect of all these changes is the Gulf States growing interest in Africa, which is absolutely essential if they are to control the speed and sequence of the energy transformation. It is well known that these countries are major producers of fossil fuels and combustibles. For these reasons, they know that they need to have a strong presence in Africa.
How do you see this transformation process working out in concrete terms?
Africa is attracting the worlds attention through visits from heads of state, world figures and international organisations This is a way for them to put themselves on the radar of African leaders. Africa has been admitted to the G20 and we are seeing the BRICS being extended to African countries. In this respect, I see more signs of respect for African diplomacy. At COP28, we had very encouraging and clear indications that a large part of the promised investments are being redirected to Africa. Of course, we can fear that all this will be achieved with the model of the past. In other words, we will continue to export raw materials. This time they will be different. They will be strategic minerals and energy, but what role will they play in the continents development?
Is the continent getting enough respect in international forums?
Its always difficult with large geographical groupings
