If you thought 2025 was tough, brace yourself 2026 is shaping up to be just as challenging for the global air cargo industry. After a year that tested the resilience of the entire airfreight ecosystem, the pressures facing the sector are unlikely to ease any time soon. According to Glyn Hughes, director general of The International Air Cargo Association Tiaca, 2026 will continue to present a variety of challenges, many of them linked to geopolitics, trade policy and intensifying competition. 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience across the entire air cargo ecosystem in response to a very challenging trade and operational environment, he told Freight News. We anticipate that 2026 will continue to present a variety of challenges. One of the biggest uncertainties remains US foreign policy and its impact on global trade. Tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption from duties are already influencing landed prices, with effects expected to roll through supply chains and trading partnerships. There is a rolling effect from protectionist policies, said Hughes. We expect further challenges to arise across different trade partnerships globally. From a macroeconomic perspective, there are some stabilising factors. The International Monetary Fund is projecting global GDP growth of around 3.1 in 2026, broadly in line with 2025. That should support modest growth in air cargo demand, alongside continued capacity expansion as more passenger aircraft and freighters enter the global fleet. Overall, Hughes expects air cargo demand to grow at roughly the same pace as global GDP this year. However, yields are likely to come under pressure. Competition from maritime transport will increase for certain commodities, particularly on AsiaEurope trade lanes, as Red Sea shipping routes are expected to reopen, he said. That means a small increase in demand, but with downward pressure on yields. Trade lane dynamics would remain uneven, he said. The trans- Pacific market is still expected to present challenges, while AsiaLatin America trade showed strong growth in 2025 a trend that we expect to continue into 2026. Intra-Asian trade should also see further growth as supply chains continue to diversify within the region, particularly as distance grows between sub-assembly production and final assembly production lines. As production networks become more complex, greater distances between sub-assembly manufacturing and final assembly lines are driving increased regional air cargo flows. This shift is expected to support sustained growth across Asia. He said sectorally, high-tech remained a bright spot. The semiconductor and chip sectors, along with hardware related to AI data centres, are set to continue to expand as global investment accelerates in these areas. While automotive volumes may remain subdued, other high- tech electronics segments could deliver further growth. According to Hughes, flexibility will be critical in 2026 as geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt established trade flows. Trade disputes, border restrictions and political fallout could trigger rapid supply chain shifts with little warning. Companies need to prepare for potential shocks by seeking out new trade partners and diversifying both production and consumption patterns to reduce exposure. LV
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