In less than a weeks time South Africa, along with many other US trade partners around the world, will know whether bilateral negotiations with the Trump Administration has borne fruit.
If not, varying reciprocal tariff increases will come into play on July 9, sending ripples of revenue impacts across the trading sphere.
From a South African perspective, a range of exports currently tariffed 10 as a baseline duty for all goods from the continent, will significantly erode the profit margins of continued shipments to the US.
As next Wednesday draws nearer, President Donald Trump and his administrations proposed Liberation Day tariffs so named because they are meant to free Americas economy from perceived unfair trade imbalances have once again dominated shipping news headlines.
The administration has indicated that it aims to conclude negotiations with its ten largest trade partners after 4 July and may soon impose tariff levels on other countries unilaterally.
One of the countries that has already learned its fate in the face of punishing duties is Vietnam, previously used as a rerouting destination when Trump targeted Chinese exports during his first term.
Asia Shipping Media reports that tariffs on Vietnam would now stand at 20, down from 46.
However, a 40 tariff would be applied to the transshipment of goods a move specifically targeting China if it sends re-labelled exports to the US via Vietnam.
In exchange, Vietnam is expected to drop its own tariffs on American products.
Before the Vietnam announcement which has yet to be officially confirmed Maersk reported that companies were currently paying an effective average tariff rate of about 21 relative to container load on all US imports, based on its container-weighted effective average tariff rate metric.
The peak, recorded shortly after the April 2 Liberation Day tariff announcement, was 54.
According to Clarksons Research, global container volumes rose by 4 year-on-year in the first half of the year. However, the firm cautioned this week that periods of frontloading and pauses particularly on the Transpacific route made the second half of the year difficult to predict for both container and automotive trades.
HSBC, in a container markets report released this week, suggested that the sector had returned to a structural downcycle. The bank attributed this to the end of the tariff pause-driven cargo surge and the potential for weaker demand in the second half of 2025, owing to tariff pressures and the effects of frontloading bringing the peak season forward.
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