IMF head Kristalina Georgieva, in her curtain-raiser ahead of the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF, shared a statistic that we all feel innately: the World Uncertainty Index is now off the charts, hitting a level almost twice that during the COVID-19 pandemic and almost ten times that of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. In her view, the world economy is 'better than feared, but worse than we need.'
Inflation is calming, Africa's growth is projected to be higher than last year, and while the impact of trade tariffs is significant, we have largely averted a full trade war. But this doesn't mean we are out of the woods. External debt service has more than doubled over the past decade, reaching 2 of GDP in 2024.
Global debt will reach 100 of GDP by 2029. The number of Sub-Saharan African countries in or at high risk of debt distress has nearly tripled, rising from eight in 2014 to twenty-three in 2025-nearly half of the region. Cuts to Official Development Assistance are likely to total US31.1 billion in 2025, with Africa's low-income countries particularly hard hit.