The Coal 2025 report, published by the International Energy Agency IEA, finds that global coal demand has reached a structural plateau with consumption forecast to decline by around 3 in 2030 compared with 2025 falling below 2023 levels. According to the IEA, this marks a shift away from cyclical demand fluctuations towards longer-term structural change.
The report notes that this shift is unfolding despite continued growth in global electricity demand. It attributes the trend to lasting changes in power systems, including rapid growth in renewable energy capacity, steady expansion of nuclear power and increasing competition from natural gas rather than short-term market conditions.
While the IEA stresses that coals role in electricity systems has not become obsolete, it notes that the role is changing. Global coal-fired power generation is expected to fall below its 2021 level by the end of the decade with coals share of the electricity mix declining from 35 in 2024 to around 27 by 2030. Nevertheless, installed coal capacity remains high with utilisation rates falling as coal plants increasingly operate as flexible and dispatchable assets to support system adequacy and balance variable renewable generation.
