South African exports have dominated dry bulk volumes, according to year-on-year y-o-y data measured by Linernet, but theres a distinct downward trend over the last seven years.
This has been confirmed by the independent data aggregators Lance Pullan.
Looking at annual recorded volumes since 2019, he said: Bulk volumes are very closely correlated to rail capacity and performance so the recovery does appear to be losing a bit of momentum.
Closer analysis of the data accumulated through Transnet National Ports Authority TNPA, shows that the last time significantly more than 100 million tonnes were shifted in a year was in 2019, immediately before the supply chain impact of the coronavirus epidemic.
Although 2021 broke through the 100m benchmark barrier once more, showing a slight recovery from 2020, the pandemics worst-hit year, volumes since then have been a see-saw affair.
Whereas 2023 volumes decreased markedly compared with previous y-o-y yields, last year just about fell short of the 100m benchmark.
Half-year H1 in, 2025 is lagging last years figures but H2 volumes could surpass 2024 volumes, especially given consistent improvements at TNPA and related parastatal subsidiaries Transnet Port Terminals and Transnet Freight Rail TFR.
Most notably, Linernets dry bulk data since 2019 confirms very strong exports-vs-imports data.
Ports data in the aggregators past seven-year configurations show that Cape Town and East London were mostly flat, while Durban and Port Elizabeth Gqeberha had similar volumes.
Ngquras dry bulk volumes are on a steady growth trajectory, while Richards Bay and Saldanha performed fairly well, as per the ports dry bulk expectations.
Saldanha Bay, specifically, showed a marked volume decrease in 2023.
Coming in a year when TFRs third-party access developments have been much in vogue as Transnet pushed for much-expanded rail freight, dry-bulk specific ports like Richards Bay and Saldanha could exceed last years figures.
But its going to take some doing before volumes last seen in 2019 are again realised.