Global airfreight rates are continuing to trade below 2024 levels, and while early 2026 is expected to bring further easing, shippers should prepare for renewed volatility and sharp peak periods as e-commerce and artificial intelligence-driven demand reshapes the market, says Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer for Xeneta. Speaking during a recent online event examining market predictions, Van de Wouw said global airfreight rates were already showing year-on-year declines when measured in US dollars. Overall, we see rates at the moment at a lower level than we saw in 2024 over the same period, he said. On a global level, we are around minus 4 to minus 5. That figure is in US dollars, and if you factor in the devaluation of the dollar against stronger currencies such as the euro, the real year-on-year decline is probably closer to minus 8. Looking to 2026, he said expectations were for low single-digit growth in airfreight demand, estimated at around 2 to 3, alongside a slightly higher increase in available capacity. According to Van de Wouw, this combination should create downward pressure on rates between airlines and freight forwarders. If capacity grows a bit faster than demand, the math is simple that puts pressure on pricing, he said. However, the dynamics between freight forwarders and shippers could amplify that effect. He said that large global forwarders were unlikely to be satisfied with volume growth of just 2 to 3, particularly when reporting to investors or boards. They will want to grow faster than that, he said. But you cannot create airfreight demand. You cannot stimulate demand as an airline or a freight forwarder. So if you want to grow faster, you have to increase market share, and the most common way to do that is to become more aggressive on pricing. This competitive behaviour could ultimately benefit shippers. If the demand-supply balance shifts in favour of the shipper and large forwarders start competing harder for volumes, that will create even more downward pressure on rates, he said. Despite this anticipated easing, Maarten Wormer, head of consulting at Aevean, cautioned against assuming a smooth or sustained decline in pricing. While some relaxation is expected in the early part of 2026, the market remains structurally constrained. Limited international widebody capacity is expected to enter the market this year, with most growth coming from narrowbody operations rather than long-haul widebody fleets. At the same time, demand is increasingly concentrated in premium segments. E-commerce and high-tech cargo will continue to take the growing share of direct flights and fast hub connections, especially out of Asia. This is expected to drive pronounced peaks on key trade lanes. If you are running a large volume, just-in-time supply chain dependent on very hot markets like Taiwan and Vietnam, in particular, discuss long-term block spaces to protect uplift for your most critical volumes at predictable economics, he said. The experts agreed that while premium capacity will remain under pressure, shippers can still find cost-effective options by being flexible on routing. Slower or more creative routings continue to offer savings and provide transit time trade-offs that are well understood. However, execution on the ground is becoming increasingly important. Speed is won on the ground, said Van de Wouw. Even on deferred routings, flight times are rarely more than three days, but customs and ground handling delays typically eat up most of the transit time. If you want to benefit from lower- cost air solutions, you must be dialled in on customs and ground execution. LV
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