The upside is real. Africa is becoming the world's largest source of new workforce entrants critical minerals remain a critical opportunity and there is a significant pool of under-utilised African capital. But two risks still set the terms for everything else: expensive financing and political instability. The five dynamics described below frame the 2026 outlook in practical terms: what to watch, where value can be built and what needs to change to unlock long-term investment.
Africa's 500 premiumAnalysis by One Data shows that borrowing from capital markets is costing African governments around 500 of what it would have cost to borrow the same through World Bank financing. This premium added 56bn in additional costs on capital-market debt raised in the five years prior to 2021.
If this "Africa risk premium" isn't reduced, debt service will continue to crowd out public investment - and private credit will stay scarce and expensive, even in fast-growing markets.
