The African Union Executive Council will tomorrow (Friday) hold a meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, that will make or break Raila Odingas candidacy for chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).
The Executive Council, composed of foreign affairs ministers of member states, is expected to review a set of proposals advanced by the AUs legal counsel and deliberate on preparations for the election of senior leadership of the AUC expected to take place in February next year.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi , who also doubles up as the CS for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, told the Nation on Wednesdaythat he was set to attend tomorrows meeting in Ethiopia.
According to multiple interviews conducted by the Nation on Wednesday, Mr Odinga is poised to profit from a general disagreement over a draft rule change that had threatened to lock him out Mr Odinga of the running for the AUC post.
The AUs Permanent Representatives Committee (PRC) has agreed on certain recommendations that will be incorporated in the draft decision to be presented to the Executive Council tomorrow.
Some member states opposed the proposed stiff set of rules meant to tie rotational positions to gender parity.
One proposal had sought to have regional and intraregional rotation such that countries that had previously held the chairperson or deputy chairperson role excluded from the race.
Another proposal suggested that male chairpersons are alternated with female ones, which would have meant that the February election is restricted to female candidates.
But ahead of the Executive Council session, diplomatic sources indicated that divisions, which are advantageous to Kenyas candidacy, have arisen mainly because the draft rules also deny incumbents eligible to run for a second term a chance.
Members also refused the gender alternation within eligible regions, asking instead to grant autonomy to those regions to decide their best talents.
Both proposals could have hurt Mr Odinga because he is male, and Kenya has had an AUC deputy chairperson before in Dr Erastus Mwencha (2008 to 2016).
By last evening, AU members had largely agreed on rotation between regions but without the compulsory demand to alternate genders.
A source indicated that this means Eastern Africa will still be eligible to front a candidate for chairperson while Northern Africa will contest for deputy, if the council agrees and the AU Assembly endorses the proposal.
A retired diplomat associated with the lobbying said tomorrows meeting will be crucial because divisions without consensus may mean a relapse to status quo where regional rotation hasnt been practiced as a rule.
The rotation is supposed to follow regions in English alphabetical order: Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western.
They also agreed that gender parity and intra-regional rotation need not isolate any members from the eligible regions. This allows both male and female candidates from all countries in the eligible geographical regions to contest.
They want regions to determine their own candidates, not for AU to impose on them gender. Rotation to remain, however, a source told the Nation in confidence.
The Executive Council currently excludes all countries that have violated the AU policy on unconstitutional changes in government.
They include Sudan, Gabon, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea. Once it adopts the proposed changes, the Assembly will need to approve them for them to become official policy.
The stars are aligned in our favour. Under AU election rules, Kenya and the other AU member states in the Eastern Africa region are well positioned to produce the next AUC chair next year, Mr Mudavadi told the Nation in an interview.
Going by rotation, Eastern ranks ahead of Northern Africa, so we have the best opportunity to front our candidate, Mr Mudavadi said.
The rules, which are part of wide-ranging AU reforms that began in 2016, recognise the need for a more equitable and inclusive AU leadership, including the chair, deputy chair and commissioners, he said.
The Southern, Central and Western regions, he noted, have dominated the chairperson position since 2002.
Now, if rotation is followed, the Eastern region will produce the next chairperson while the North will produce the next deputy.
The current chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat is from Chad, which is in Central Africa. He is deputised by Dr Monique Nsanzabaganwa of Rwanda.
But there is still dissatisfaction among some member states that some of the incumbents, eligible to run for a second term, will be ineligible if rotation is allowed.
However,
