Visa has released its 2026 Global Economic Outlook, projecting steady global economic growth of 2.7 while highlighting deep structural changes reshaping the world economy beneath the surface. According to the report, advances in artificial intelligence, evolving trade networks, and shifting investment dynamics are fundamentally transforming global commerce, even as headline growth figures suggest relative stability.
Visa's analysis shows that while global GDP growth is expected to slow slightly from 2.9 in 2025 to 2.7 in 2026, this apparent moderation masks powerful underlying shifts. Generative AI adoption is accelerating across sectors, supply chains are becoming more regionalized, and demographic pressures-particularly population aging-are influencing long-term growth prospects. These forces are redefining how economies expand and where value is created.
Consumer spending is forecast to remain resilient, growing 2.4 in 2026, though at a slower pace than the previous year. Inflation is also expected to ease from 3.4 to 3.1, providing some relief to households. At the same time, Visa notes a significant acceleration in business investment, driven largely by AI infrastructure buildouts and reduced policy uncertainty. This shift toward investment-led growth is expected to support commercial activity and business-related payments, even as consumer demand softens slightly.
