Opinion - Dr Michael J. Braun: Trends Towards Non-voting Show Citizens' Discontent With Democracy

By Dr Michael J. Braun

The upcoming 2024 elections in South Africa will likely be a watershed moment in the countrys democracy, with many polls projecting that the African National Congress (ANC) vote share will fall below 50% nationally and in several provinces for the first time.

With the caveat that these polls are not immune from serving a propaganda purpose , and suffer from some glaring weaknesses in methodology, this scenario means that opposition parties will have greater representation and be essential to forming a coalition government. They may even have a hand in selecting the President and Cabinet.

However, it is important to note that this scenario has materialised not because of growing opposition support, but because ANC voters have been choosing to abstain rather than participating in elections at all. This is reflected in the steady decline of electoral participation since 2009, with less than half of those eligible voting in the 2019 elections.

Collette Schulz Herzenberg & Robert Mattes have argued that the reason for this rise in abstention is that individuals do not want to vote for an opposition party unless they view them as a legitimate alternative. Negative images of opposition parties and their leaders are certainly important factors driving abstention , but why has it been so difficult for them to construct an image as credible parties? This question is an important one for the future of South African politics as it enters the era of multi-party democracy.

Before the 2019 elections I conducted in-depth interviews with potential voters in townships located in Johannesburg, eThekwini, Ekurhuleni, and Rustenburg. I found that attachment to the ANC was declining especially among young people but many people had decided that they would not vote at all. Rather than expressing an apathetic disinterest in politics, these potential voters followed political issues but were pessimistic that their participation would help to produce better outcomes.

There were two major reasons that abstainers expressed during interviews about why they did not think voting mattered.

Firstly, their experiences with service delivery led them to believe that the government is not capable of making desired improvements, regardless of the party that controlled the levers of political power. Indeed, poor performance evaluations of the ANC have been a major factor in abstention among Black South Africans .

Secondly, their knowledge of political corruption all the way up the ladder from their local councillors to former President Jacob Zuma gave them the impression that politicians could not be trusted to look beyond their own personal gain. Nepotism in allocating jobs, housing, and tenders led them to conclude that institutional politics was not an effective mechanism for the fair or satisfactory distribution of resources.

A 34-year-old woman I interviewed in Tembisa clearly expressed these interlinked concerns: These politicians are the same, I think theyre the same. They come only during the elections, after that, [nothing]. Theyll promise you this and this, after that, gone.

When asked whether she would vote in the next election she said: No, I dont think so, I will just sleep because my voice there doesnt say anything. My vote is my voice, but that voice is not talking anything.

Citizens feel they have no voice in politics, and therefore limited or no agency over the political processes. This is indicative of a loss of trust in the whole democratic political system, rather than being confined to specific politicians or political parties. Such sentiments explain why 62% of South Africans reported that they would be willing to give up elections for a government capable of providing law and order, housing, and jobs.

Discontent with democratic politics as usual in South Africa opens the door for political parties or movements which challenge the status quo. While populism has the potential to revitalise democracy by bringing in new voices , it can also undermine democratic values when it is used to justify authoritarian tendencies or xenophobic sentiments.

Internationally, examples include Donald Trumps ongoing challenge to American democracy and Rodrigo Dutertes launch of a deadly war on drugs in the Philippines. In South Africa, the Operation Dudula Movements promotion of vigilantism against African immigrants showed the potential appeal of blaming society's ills on a particular group of people, and there is no shortage of politicians that have sought to gain popularity with divisive or tough on crime rhetoric.

After the ballots are counted in the 2024 election, the decisions and behaviour of the major parties in the subsequent years will determine whether trust