The Mastercard Economics Institute MEI has released its Economic Outlook 2026, projecting a resilient and favorable growth path for the Middle East and Africa MEA. While global real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 3.1, the MENA region is set to outpace this average with a 3.6 year-on-year expansion. This growth is primarily fueled by aggressive structural reforms, targeted fiscal investments, and a significant acceleration in digital transformation that is helping the region navigate a landscape of increasing global fragmentation.
A defining feature of this outlook is the regions rapid pivot toward high-tech infrastructure and artificial intelligence. According to the MEIs new AI Enthusiasm Index, the Middle East is moving beyond the experimentation phase toward deep operational integration. This shift is most visible in the construction sector, where tech-related projectssuch as data centers and electronic manufacturing unitsnow account for over 20 of total non-residential construction, up from just 2.3 a decade ago. Strategies like Saudi Arabias Vision 2030 and the UAEs National Strategy for AI are cited as key catalysts that will support non-oil growth and long-term economic diversification.
For Africa, the 2026 outlook emphasizes a massive leap in digital inclusivity and consumer resilience. Mastercard expanded its acceptance network across the continent by 45 in 2025, laying the groundwork for a digital payments market projected to reach 1.5 trillion by 2030. Consumer spending in major markets is expected to remain robust, with projected increases of 6 in Nigeria, 4 in Kenya, and 3.4 in Morocco. This surge is creating a fertile environment for small and medium-sized enterprises SMEs, which are increasingly using digital tools to streamline operations and compete in high-value services traditionally dominated by larger firms.
