On the cracked ribbon of tarmac that snakes from the open pits of the Copperbelt to the Democratic Republic of Congo DRC frontier with Zambia, trucks groan under bulk bags of cobalt hydroxide, a key ingredient in the lithium-ion batteries that power the world's smartphones and electric vehicles EVs. Inching past weighbridges and police posts, the trucks navigate and negotiate their way through a series of checkpoints. Some are official - uniformed, armed - others merely opportunistic.
Into this messy reality, the DRC government in Kinshasa has launched a policy experiment of unusual ambition. After eight months of a surprise export ban, the government in October pivoted to the introduction of export quotas for cobalt.
The idea is simple: throttle volumes to push prices up, channel more value into the country, and compel miners to invest locally. The risk, say analysts and industry insiders interviewed by African Business , is equally clear: quotas layered atop a fragmented enforcement system could multiply the very leakages the government aims to plug. The blanket export ban was introduced earlier this year, after a market glut sent prices tumbling to about 10 a pound - but despite a limited price recovery to 15, a ban on exports was seen by many as merely a short-term fix.