South Africas Integrated Resource Plan IRP 2025 has drawn sharp criticism from several leading energy analysts who argue that the plans allocation of 6 000 MW of gas-to-power and its inclusion of new nuclear capacity do not align with least-cost modelling.
Energy consultant Frank Spencer , CEO of SGB.Earth, says he is surprised by the scale of gas proposed and by the slower pace of coal decommissioning. In my personal view, the inclusion of gas and nuclear is likely an appeasement to influential lobby groups within government, he says. Nuclear is just too expensive, risky and complicated. It simply doesnt make commercial sense in any scenario.
Spencer notes that, while small modular reactors SMRs are being promoted internationally, they remain unproven at commercial scale. SMRs are extremely expensive at present. I think nuclear is a nod to the nuclear lobby and I dont think it will ever get built, he says.