Bank of Americas latest fund manager survey shows that investors are nearly certain South Africa is still on an interest rate-cutting cycle, but they are less confident that the Reserve Bank will cut again in 2025.
According to the surveys findings, 88 of fund managers expect the next policy move by the SARBs Monetary Policy Committee to be a cut.
However, only 50 expect this to happen at the MPCs final meeting in November, a shift down from the almost two-thirds that expected as much in the September survey.
While timing remains a coin flip, investors see two 25 basis point cuts still coming in the cycle, with the repo rate expected to be 6.50 within the 12 months.
However, current projections are for this to play out by Q2 2026a marked difference from the previous projection of the cycle running through to Q4 2026.
The October survey also revealed a notable shift in market sentiment, with 81 of fund managers bullish on local equities and a clear rotation from resources to domestic sectors such as retailers, food producers, and banks.
