The continent faces a triple economic crisis - soaring trade deficits, unsustainable debt, and volatile currencies - all exacerbated by rising protectionism and policy uncertainty. Yet within this salient challenge lies an unprecedented opportunity to redefine Africa's role in the global economy. The time is ripe for African nations to seize this moment and shape their economic destiny with purpose and foresight.
The crisis: protectionism and its tollThe United States' recent decision to impose tariffs on imports from several African countries, including over 40 on imports from Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mauritius, has sent shockwaves across the continent. These measures effectively nullify the tariff waivers previously granted under the African Growth and Opportunity Act AGOA, a trade law that provides eligible African countries with duty-free access to the US market. AGOA has been a vital lifeline for many African economies, boosting exports and fostering economic growth, and the new tariffs threaten to undermine these gains.
In 2024, exports supported by AGOA totalled approximately 8.4bn. Although AGOA exports accounted for only 1.1 of the total exports of participating countries, some nations - such as Lesotho, where AGOA goods comprise 17 of exports, and to a lesser extent Madagascar 7.2 and Nigeria 6.2 - are heavily dependent on this trade scheme. The recent imposition of tariffs signals a troubling shift that threatens to reverse the progress made over the past two decades under this trade pact, risking regional economic stability and growth.
Beyond the direct effects, the broader impacts of protectionism and policy uncertainty on Official Development Assistance ODA, investment flows and the overall global economy are even starker. Global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 in 2025 and 3 in 2026 - down from pre-tariff projections of 3.3 for both years. Sub-Saharan Africa's growth projections for the year 2025 have also witnessed a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points, according to the IMF Regional Economic Outlook 2025 .
Commodity prices, particularly for crude oil, are set to decline by about 12 as weakening global growth weighs on demand. Between 2 April and 8 April the price of Brent crude oil declined by a little more than 12 per barrel - the 11th-worst four-day price performance since 1990. For the continent, these developments signal slower growth, shrinking export revenues, declining reserves, fiscal contraction, tighter financing conditions, and ultimately, heightened debt vulnerabilities.